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2021, vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 128137


On the foreshock cascade and extraordinary forecasts in connection with the article by A.I. Malyshev and L.K. Malysheva Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region
Mikhail V. Rodkin1,2,3,,
1Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, RAS, Russia
2Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, FEB RAS, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia
3Institute of Oil and Gas Problems, RAS, Russia
Abstract PDF ENG PDF RUS Full text PDF RUS&ENG

Abstract. Not so many issues, that have such a divergence of view, as on the existence and nature of foreshock activation. The range here is from public admission, that the previously described effect of foreshock avalanche-like activation is nothing more than the result of (though unconscious) data fitting, to the cases of incredibly accurate predictions of the time of strong earthquakes (though retrospective). The article by A.I. Malyshev and L.K. Malysheva, published in the current issue, gave a reason to return to these disagreements again and to offer a possible explanation for them. The article referenced in the title and this message are published in the current issue of the journal in Russian and English.

method of the self-developing processes, alrtd seismic moment release (AMR), foreshock cascade, random and systematic components of a seismic regime

For citation: Rodkin M.V. On the foreshock cascade and extraordinary forecasts in connection with the article by A.I. Malyshev and L.K. Malysheva Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region. Geosistemy perehodnykh zon = Geosystems of Transition Zones, 2021, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 128137. (In Russ. & Engl.).

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