2020, . 4, 3, . 270287
URL: http://journal.imgg.ru/currnumb.htm
https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.3.270-278.279-287

Long-term trends of subsoil radon in Kamchatka as indicators for the preparation of earthquakes with > 7.5 at the northwestern framing of the Pacific Ocean
Pavel P. Firstov*1, Evgeniy O. Makarov1,2
1Kamchatka Branch of the Federal Research Centre United Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
2Kamchatka State University named after Vitus Bering, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
*E-mail: firstov@emsd.ru
Abstract PDF ENG PDF RUS Full text PDF RUS&ENG

The paper presents the results of the volume activity monitoring of subsoil radon at the strain-sensitive point of the Paratunka control station (PRTR) for 20002020. Emanation observations are carried out at this point in order to search for precursors of strong earthquakes in subsoil radon variations. The preparation of earthquakes at the northwestern framing of the Pacific Ocean with a source depth H < 200 km and w > 7.5, and of a lower magnitude in some cases, which have occurred at the distances up to 1000 km from PRTR, is reflected in the dynamics of radon volume activity (RVA) in the form of trends lasting from 8 months to 3 years. The behavior of RVA dynamics in the last 5 years points to a possible earthquake with w > 7.5 in the Pacific Ocean in the vicinity of the eastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, which may occur before February 1, 2021. This conclusion is consistent with a long-term seismic forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka seismogenic zone, made in the works of S.A. Fedotov and A.V. Solomatin [2017, 2019], according to which the highest probability of an earthquake with w > 7.7 falls on the Avacha Bay and Southern Kamchatka.


Keywords:
Kamchatka Peninsula, subsoil radon, moisture saturation zone, long-term trends, precursor, earthquake

For citation: Firstov P.P., Makarov E.O. Long-term trends of subsoil radon in Kamchatka as indicators for the preparation of earthquakes with > 7.5 at the northwestern framing of the Pacific Ocean. Geosistemy perehodnykh zon = Geosystems of Transition Zones, 2020, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 270287. (In Russ. & Engl.). https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.3.270-278.279-287

: .., .. > 7.5 - . , 2020, . 4, 3, . 270287. https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2020.4.3.270-278.279-287


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