Geosistemy perehodnykh zon = Geosystems of Transition Zones /
Content is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

2021, vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 2745


Mid-term earthquake prediction using the LURR method on Sakhalin Island: A summary of retrospective studies for 19972019 and new approaches
Alexander S. Zakupin*,,
Nataliya V. Boginskaya,,

Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, FEB RAS, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia

Abstract. The work presents the results of a retrospective analysis of the seismicity of Sakhalin using the LURR method of mid-term earthquake prediction for 19972019. All previously performed computations are reduced to a single database of seismological data (catalogue) of the Sakhalin Branch of the Federal Research Center United Geophysical Survey of RAS. Similar to previous studies, the Sakhalin territory was scanned by applying computational areas in the form of circles with a radius of one degree; however, the resolution was increased. The entire territory was covered by such zones with a step of 0.5 degrees in latitude and longitude, with the grid being detailed down to 0.1 degrees in three most dangerous seismogenerating zones. As a result, the number of computational samples was increased, which allowed the omission of anomalies in the LURR parameter during computations to be avoided. Due to a reasonable binding of the lower bound of the magnitude for predicted events to the upper bound of the magnitude range of the computational sample (M = 5), the number of objects for the retrospective forecast was increased by 3 times for the study period. 323 computational samples (119 of which are basic and 204 ones are detailed) were processed on the territory of the island. 15 alarm periods were obtained, which geographically represent all zones of moderate and strong earthquake generation on Sakhalin Island. As a result, 17 out of 19 earthquakes with M ≥ 5 occurred in the areas with anomalies during the alarm periods not exceeding three years. Out of 15 periods, 4 turned to be false. Thus, 75 % of the alarms predicted 89 % of the earthquakes.

seismicity, seismic events, LURR method, earthquake catalogue, anomaly, forecast (prediction)

For citation: Zakupin A.S., Boginskaya N.V. Mid-term earthquake prediction using the LURR method on Sakhalin Island: A summary of retrospective studies for 19972019 and new approaches. Geosistemy perehodnykh zon = Geosystems of Transition Zones, 2021, 5(1), p. 2745. (In Russ., abstr. in Engl.). (Article first publ. online 20 Jan 2021. PREPRINTS.RU

: .., .. LURR : 19972019 . . , 2021, 5(1), . 2745. (Article first publ. online 20 Jan 2021. PREPRINTS.RU


1. Gusev A.A. 1974. [Earthquakes prediction by the seismicity statistics]. In: Seismichnost i seismicheskii prognoz, svoistva verkhnei mantii i ikh sviaz s vulkanizmom na Kamchatke [Seismicity and seismic prediction, properties of the upper mantle and their relation to volcanism in Kamchatka ]. Novosibirsk: Nauka, 109119. (In Russ.).

2. Zakupin A.S. 2016. Program complex for the analysis of instability of seismic process. Geoinformatika , 1: 3443. (In Russ.).

3. Zakupin A.S., Boginskaya N.V. 2020 . Mid-term assessments of the seismic hazard on Sakhalin Island by the LURR method: new results. Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon = Geosystems of Transition Zones, 4(2): 160177. (In Russ. & Engl.)

4. Zakupin A.S., Semenova E.P. 2018. Study of the process of preparation of strong earthquakes (Mw>5) on Sakhalin using the LURR method. Bulletin KRASEC. Physical and Mathematical Sciences, 5: 8398.

5. Zakupin A.S., Levin Yu.N., Boginskaya N.V., Zherdeva O.A. 2018. Development of medium-term prediction methods: A case study of the August 14, 2016 Onor (M = 5.8) earthquake on Sakhalin. Russian Geology and Geophysics, 59(11): 15261532.

6. Zakupin A.S., Bogomolov L.M., Boginskaya N.V. 2020. Using the Load/Unload Response Ratio and Self-Developing Processes Methods of analyzing seismic sequences to predict earthquakes in Sakhalin. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 56(7): 693705.

7. Levin B.W., Kim C.U., Solovjev V.N. 2013. A seismic hazard assessment and the results of detailed seismic zoning for urban territories of Sakhalin Island. Russian J. of Pacific Geology, 7(6): 455464.

8. Poplavskaya L.N. (ed.) 2006. [Regional catalog of Sakhalin Island earthquakes, 19052005 ]. Authors: Poplavskaya L.N., Ivashchenko A.I., Oskorbin L.S., Nagornykh T.V., Permikin Yu.Yu., Poplavskii A.A., Fokina T.A., Kim Ch.U., Kraeva N.V., Rudik M.I. et al. Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk: IMGiG DVO RAN, 103 p. (In Russ.).

9. Rautian T.G. 1960a. Zatukhaniye seysmicheskikh voln i energiya zemletryaseniy [Seismic waves attenuation and earthquakes energy]. Trudy Tadzhikskogo instituta seysmostoykogo stroitelstva i seysmologii [Proceedings of the Tajik Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology ], 7: 4186.

10. Rautian T.G. 1960b. [The energy of earthquakes]. Trudy IFZ AN SSSR [Proceedings of the IPE, the USSR Academy of Sciences ], 176: 75114. (In Russ.).

11. Solovyev S.L., Solovyeva O.N. 1967 . [The relationship between the energy class and magnitude of Kuril earthquakes]. Izvestiya RAN, Fizika Zemli, 2: 1323.

12. Sokhatyuk A.S., Detsik I.V., Boginskaya N.V., Parshina I.A., Fercheva V.N. 2016 . Sakhalin (M ≥ 2.8). Zemletryaseniya Rossii v 2014 g. [Earthquakes in Russia in 2014 ]. Obninsk: FITs EGS RAN, 127131.

13. Gardner J.K., Knopoff L. 1974 . Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull. of the Seismological Society of America, 64(5): 13631367.

14. Grunthal G., Wahlstrom R., Stromeyer D. 2009 . The unified catalogue of earthquakes in central, northern, and northwestern Europe (CENEC) updated and expanded to the last millennium. J. of Seismology, 13(4): 517541.

15. Molchan G. 1991 . Structure of optimal strategies in earthquake prediction. Tectonophysics , 193: 267276.

16. Reasenberg P. 1985 . Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 19691982. J. of Geophysical Research, 90(318): 54795495.

17. Stepnov A.A., Gavrilov A.V., Konovalov A.V., Ottemoller L. 2014 . New architecture of an automated system for acquisition, storage, and processing of seismic data. Seismic Instruments, 1(50): 6774.

18. Uhrhammer R. 1986 . Characteristics of Northern and Central California seismicity. Earthquake Notes, 57(1): 21.

19. Yin X.C., Wang Y.C., Peng K.Y., Bai Y.L., Wang H.T., Yin X.F. 2001 . Development of a new approach to earthquake prediction: The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) theory. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 157(11/12): 23652383.

20. Yin X.C., Zhang L.P., Zhang H.H., Yin C., Wang Y., Zhang Y., Peng K., Wang H., Song Z., Yu H., Zhuang J. 2006 . LURRs twenty years and its perspective. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163: 23172341.