Geosistemy perehodnykh zon = Geosystems of Transition Zones / Геосистемы переходных зон
Content is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

2020, vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 447–473


Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources
Yury P. Korolev*, Pavel Yu. Korolev
Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, FEB RAS, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia
Abstract PDF ENG Резюме PDF RUS Полный текст PDF RUS&ENG

Abstract. Reliable short-term tsunami forecast on the Kuril Islands when earthquakes occur in the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench is the most difficult. Forecasting by the traditional magnitude method often leads to false tsunami alarms. Based on the examples of the events of 2006, 2007 and 2020 on the Kuril Islands, as well as the event of 2018 in Alaska, it was shown that according to the data of the ocean level measuring stations closest to the tsunami source (tsunami travel time is 10–20 minutes) it is possible to adequately predict the tsunami near the coast. Calculations of tsunami waveforms near the coast from data containing seismic noise have shown that the resulting waveforms contain high-frequency oscillations. However, these fluctuations do not interfere with the assessment of the real waveform and the danger of the expected tsunami. In contrast to forecast methods based on the magnitude criterion, the applied method of short-term tsunami forecast makes it possible to calculate the waveform: the amplitudes of the first, maximum waves, their arrival time at a given point and the estimated duration of the tsunami. The proposed method can become a tool that will improve the quality of operational tsunami warning, significantly reducing the number of false tsunami alarms.

tsunami, earthquake magnitude, tsunami alarm, Onekotan, Kuril Islands, Severo-Kurilsk, method of short-term tsunami forecast, forecast lead time, DART, seismic noise

For citation: Korolev Yu.P., Korolev P.Yu. Short-term forecast of local tsunamis based on data containing seismic noise from deep-ocean stations closest to the sources. Geosistemy perehodnykh zon = Geosystems of Transition Zones, 2020, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 393–446. (In Russ. & Engl.).

Для цитирования: Королев Ю.П., Королев П.Ю. Оперативный прогноз локальных цунами по данным ближайших к очагам глубоководных станций, содержащим шумы сейсмического происхождения. Геосистемы переходных зон, 2020, т. 4, № 4, с. 393–446. (На рус. и англ. яз.).


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